COMPARATIVE SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF VEHICLE THEFT IN SÃO PAULO CITY USING COMPLEX NETWORKS

Luis Fernando Gonçalves, Yuri Perez, Fábio Henrique Pereira

Abstract


Vehicle theft are a recurring problem in São Paulo, affecting both public safety and the perception of risk in the city. This type of crime does not happen randomly but follows specific patterns that can be analyzed to understand its distribution and spread. Many studies use hotspot maps and statistical models to identify the most affected areas, but these approaches do not always capture the connections between crimes and how they propagate over time and space. To fill this gap, this study adopts a complex network-based approach, allowing for a broader analysis of crime dynamics. For this purpose, vehicle robberies that occurred between 2017 and 2021 were analyzed using data from the São Paulo Public Security Department. Each crime was represented as a tide in a network, and the connections between them were established based on geographical and temporal proximity. The network efficiency metric was applied to measure crime connectivity and identify structural patterns. In addition to that, statistical tests such as ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis, and Dunn were used to verify significant differences between the administrative regions of the city. The results indicate that some regions act as crime hubs, consistently concentrating vehicle robberies over the years. A decline in criminal network connectivity was also observed in 2019, followed by a reorganization of patterns in 2021, possibly influenced by external factors, such as changes in policing strategies and mobility restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, a spatial diffusion effect was identified, where districts neighboring highly affected areas also exhibit high robbery rates, suggesting that crime spreads between adjacent regions. This study highlights the potential of complex networks as a powerful tool for understanding urban crime more deeply. Rather than treating robberies as isolated events, this approach recognizes them as part of an interconnected system, where certain city areas play a central role in the spread of criminal activities.

Keywords


Complex networks; Urban crime; Criminal informatics; Urban planning.

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5102/rbpp.v15i3.10188

ISSN 2179-8338 (impresso) - ISSN 2236-1677 (on-line)

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